Jack Draper vs Matteo Arnaldi Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

Analyzing the recent performance of Draper and Arnaldi, we observe that Draper has secured victories in 72.13% of his matches over the past year, tallying a win-loss record of 44-17. In comparison, Arnaldi has achieved a 52.94% match win rate, with a record of 27-24. This provides a head-to-head prediction overview, tipping in Draper’s favor.

Focusing on second serve performance in the past six months, Arnaldi has a slight edge with 48.41% of points won compared to Draper's 45.65%. This statistic is crucial for accurate match predictions. Additionally, evaluating return game statistics, Arnaldi again holds a marginal advantage, having secured 43.06% of points from opponent's second serves as opposed to Draper's 42.91%. On their first serve returns, Arnaldi is also leading, achieving a success rate of 26.77% versus Draper’s 24.09%. These figures are significant when determining the preferred player in this head-to-head matchup.

In terms of performance under pressure, Draper demonstrates superior breakpoint resilience by saving 58.47% of breakpoints compared to Arnaldi’s 53.69%. This aspect is essential for predicting in-game outcomes. Furthermore, Draper's conversion of breakpoints stands at 34.38%, leading Arnaldi who converts 27.27% of his opportunities. This statistic plays a key role in live betting scenarios when breakpoints arise.

When examining favored surfaces, Draper excels on indoor hard courts with a career win percentage of 74%, whereas he is less adept on grass, with a win rate of 57%. In contrast, Arnaldi fares best on clay courts with a 66% victory rate but struggles on indoor hard, winning only 38%. The probable win is more linked to Draper's surface capabilities given the current match location.

Draper predominantly contends on the Main tour, winning 81.82% of his matches (W/L 18/4) in contrast to Arnaldi’s focus on the Masters series with a 61.9% win rate (W/L 13/8). The difference in the event level and average opponent rank—Draper facing players ranked on average at 45.46 against Arnaldi’s 64.25—can heavily influence predictions, favoring the one dealing with higher-ranked competition.

If the match extends to a deciding set, Draper's track record is promising with a 71% win rate over the past year, significantly surpassing Arnaldi's 45% in such scenarios. Given the statistics and comparative analysis, Draper emerges as the more probable victor for this match.